Wall Street's IPO Stampede Is A Race To Beat SpaceX: Here's When Polymarket Thinks Elon Musk Will List

Companies are rushing to price initial public offerings before Elon Musk’s SpaceX lands a potentially $2 trillion deal on Wall Street and sucks up the oxygen.

As much as $17.3 billion in US listings could hit the tape this month alone, the busiest stretch since December.

“If I’m any company and I want to have a chance of attracting investors that invest in IPOs, I’d probably rather do it before that deal comes,” Bob Doll, chief executive of Crossmark Global Investments, told Bloomberg.

Bankers think they have until June. Polymarket traders agree.

Polymarket Traders Are Pricing June

Polymarket’s main contract on SpaceX’s IPO month gives June a 65% probability, with July at 12% and a “no IPO before 2027” tail at 6%.

SpaceX reportedly filed confidentially with the SEC on April 1, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and a $75 billion raise. That would be the largest IPO in history, bigger than Saudi Aramco.

Polymarket traders think there is a 91% chance SpaceX is the largest IPO this year, with Anthropic a distant second at 4%.

Polymarket thinks that the market cap of the IPO is most likely to be between $1.5 and $2 trillion.

What The Stampede Looks Like

Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square closed-end fund is leading this week’s slate, seeking up to $10 billion ahead of an April 28 pricing. It’s a real test of retail appetite for the kind of vehicle that usually only draws institutional money.

Nuclear startup X-Energy, backed by Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), is chasing $814 million in the same window. AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems and a Blackstone Inc. (NYSE:BX) data-center vehicle may each aim for at least $2 billion before SpaceX hits the roadshow.

The class is pricing well, which is part of why the pipeline is rushing. The weighted-average return for 2026 US IPOs, excluding SPACs and closed-end funds, has jumped to 21%. The S&P 500 is up 4.2% over the same stretch.

Morgan Stanley Leads The Fee Race

Polymarket has a view on who collects the underwriting haul too. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) is priced at 47% to win lead bank on SpaceX, with Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) at 22% and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) at 17%.

At the 2% gross spread estimated by Jay Ritter, the University of Florida academic known in the industry as “Mr. IPO,” the syndicate stands to split around $1.5 billion in fees on a $75 billion raise.

Chamath Palihapitiya warned IPO hopefuls this month to get out ahead of SpaceX, saying that SpaceX could eat up a lot of demand.

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