Apple's App Store Just Had A Blowout Quarter—And That Might Be The Signal Bulls Needed

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been a rare laggard among the tech giants in 2025, down 15% year-to-date and underperforming peers like Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:MSFT).

But a powerful mix of seasonal strength, rising App Store revenue and improving sentiment could set up the stock for a rare comeback—and Bank of America thinks the recent data might mark a potential turning point.

Apple's Revenue Engine Is Revving

"The App Store saw strong +12% year-over-year revenue growth in June," the bank’s analyst Wamsi Mohan said in a note dated July 2, citing SensorTower data.

Fiscal third-quarter App Store sales jumped to $8.4 billion, up from $7.5 billion in the same period last year, while downloads grew 4.3%. Notably, dollars spent per download rose nearly 7% to $0.98—a sign that Apple's monetization per user is improving.

Gaming, which once accounted for more than half of all App Store revenue, has seen its share fall to 45% in fiscal third quarter. Meanwhile, other categories like productivity, utilities, lifestyle, education, and photo & video apps are steadily gaining traction.

Productivity apps alone saw their revenue share climb by 200 basis points year-over-year, the largest gain of any category, while books, education and lifestyle apps each gained around 100 basis points.

This suggests consumer spending is diversifying across the ecosystem, and Apple may be less reliant on volatile gaming trends than in the past.

Another trend in Apple's App Store performance is who's driving the revenue. The top 10 developers now account for nearly 25% of total revenue year-to-date, split between studios with single hit apps like Tinder and ChatGPT, and larger firms like Tencent and Google that operate multiple apps.

With the company now capturing more value from non-gaming categories like productivity, lifestyle and utilities—and maintaining resilience despite regulatory changes—Mohan reiterated a Buy rating with a price objective of $235, implying a nearly 10% upside from the July 3 close at $213.55.

Why July Could Be Apple's Golden Month

History shows July is far and away Apple's strongest month. Over the last 20 years, the stock has ended July in positive territory 17 times, averaging a 7.6% gain.

Since 2016, Apple has won every single July—marking a nine-year winning streak. Standout gains include 18.9% in 2022 and 18.6% in 2006.

Going further back, the trend holds: Apple has finished July higher in 23 of the past 30 years, with an average return of 7.3%. Just as striking, its performance relative to the S&P 500 has been positive in 77% of those years, beating the benchmark by an average of 5.8%.

No other stock in the S&P 500 has matched that level of consistency or magnitude in July.

There have been some rare drawdowns—namely in 2001, 2002 and 2008—when Apple fell 19.2%, 13.9% and 5.1%, respectively. But those declines coincided with broader market collapses, not company-specific weakness. In recent history, any red July prints have been shallow: down 3.3% in 2015 and less than 1% in 2004.

That makes July something of a seasonal floor for Apple stock, especially when paired with strong fundamentals like rising services revenue and growing diversification outside gaming within the App Store ecosystem.

Year	AAPL July Return (%)
1994	27.12
1995	-3.10
1996	4.76
1997	22.81
1998	20.70
1999	20.24
2000	-2.98
2001	-19.18
2002	-13.88
2003	10.60
2004	-0.61
2005	15.87
2006	18.67
2007	7.96
2008	-5.07
2009	14.72
2010	2.27
2011	16.33
2012	4.58
2013	14.12
2014	2.87
2015	-3.29
2016	9.01
2017	3.27
2018	2.80
2019	7.64
2020	16.51
2021	6.50
2022	18.86
2023	1.28
2024	5.44
Average gain	7.3%
Win ratio	77%

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