Gary Black Says This Could Spark Strong Rally In Tech And Growth Stocks If Recession Risks Stay Low

A drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below the key 4% level could ignite a significant rally in technology and other growth stocks, according to prominent investor Gary Black.

In a recent social media post, Black suggested that such a move in the bond market would be a powerful catalyst for certain equities, provided the economy is not heading into a recession.

Technology Companies Are Sensitive To Interest Rate Changes

Black posed a rhetorical question to his followers, “What happens when the 10yrTY breaks below 4.0%?” He answered, “Equities, especially long-duration equities should move higher”.

Long-duration equities, like many tech firms, are highly sensitive to interest rate changes because their valuations are heavily based on future earnings potential.

Lower yields make those future profits more valuable today. The 10-year yield was last below the 4% level in October 2024.

What happens when the 10yrTY breaks below 4.0%? Equities especially long-duration equities should move higher, assuming we are not headed for a recession. The 10yrTY was last below 4.0% in Oct 2024. pic.twitter.com/AznFn86lGy

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) September 8, 2025

10 Year Treasury Yields Could Slip Below 4% By Year-End

This sentiment is strongly echoed by Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel.

In his weekly commentary, Siegel noted that the 10-Year Treasury is already sliding “towards the cycle low near 4.00%” as signs of economic deceleration make Federal Reserve rate cuts a “near certainty”.

He argues that this “bond-led easing in financial conditions is bullish for equities,” and his base case has “10-year yields testing below 4%” by the end of the year.

BlackRock Remains Underweight Long-Term UST

However, not all market analysis is uniformly bullish on long-term bonds. Investment giant BlackRock, in its latest market backdrop, expressed a more cautious stance, maintaining an underweight position on long U.S. Treasuries for long-term strategic portfolios.

While they cite risks from persistent budget deficits, they concede there is “scope for lower yields near term”.

For now, they prefer the safety of short-term Treasuries, which they view as being “akin to cash”.

This nuanced view suggests that while a near-term dip in yields favoring tech stocks is possible, the long-term trajectory for bonds may face headwinds.

Price Action

As of the publication of this article, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.06% and the two-year bond was at 3.50%.

Here are a few technology sector-linked exchange-traded funds that investors could consider as 10-Year Treasury yields move closer to falling below the 4% mark.

ETF Name	YTD Performance	One Year Performance
iShares US Technology ETF (NYSE:IYW)	15.46%	32.14%
Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF (NYSE:FTEC)	13.34%	30.58%
First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (NYSE:FDN)	15.71%	44.63%
iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (NYSE:IGM)	17.59%	36.82%
iShares Global Tech ETF (NYSE:IXN)	14.13%	26.43%
Defiance Quantum ETF (NASDAQ:QTUM)	16.88%	66.13%
Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (BATS:MAGS)	13.13%	43.09%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket on Tuesday. The SPY was up 0.079% at $649.34, while the QQQ declined 0.15% to $579.73, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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