Senators Want The CFTC To Kill Polymarket's Most Controversial Bets On Death, War, Terror

Six Democratic senators are demanding CFTC Chairman Michael Selig ban prediction market contracts that resolve on someone dying, a city being captured or a NASA rocket exploding.

The letter, led by Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), goes further than just the three examples.

The senators are asking the CFTC to reiterate that contracts involving gaming, sports, war, terrorism, assassination or similar activities are barred from being listed, traded or cleared under the Commodity Exchange Act.

They also want CFTC Chairman Michael Selig to stop intervening in court on behalf of prediction market platforms.

Selig has been defending prediction markets against state regulators, filing a brief last week asserting exclusive CFTC jurisdiction.

The Three Contracts

The letter flags three Polymarket listings.

One asked whether the Artemis II crewed moon mission would explode. “Yes” traded as high as 8% before Polymarket pulled it after backlash.

Another tracked whether Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power. A freshly created account netted over $400,000 on that bet right before the U.S. military operation went public. Analysts flagged the trade as a likely case of insider trading.

The third asked whether the Ukrainian town of Myrnohrad would fall to Russia. “Yes” bettors reportedly profited 33,000% after a think tank staffer allegedly faked a map to trigger the payout.

What’s Still Live

Polymarket has plenty of markets that fit the description given by the Senators.

Active markets include strikes on Iran, U.S. anti-cartel activity in Mexico, the war in Ukraine and many other markets that involve death and suffering.

The platform’s Jesus Christ return market has done $32 million in volume.

The Second Coming is closely associated with ‘The End Of Times’, which would make it the biggest death-adjacent market on the platform by a wide margin.

Kalshi, Polymarket’s CFTC-regulated rival, does not list contracts referencing military action or assassination.

Why It Matters For Traders

Prediction markets are booming. Volume on Kalshi and Polymarket hit $17 billion in January 2026 alone.

Kalshi is overwhelmingly a sports platform, with over 80% of its volume coming from sports contracts, but Polymarket’s war, geopolitics and “weird internet” markets are a huge part of what separates it from a sportsbook.

Forcing the platform to delist those categories could dent the volume and liquidity that makes the whole prediction market ecosystem attractive to institutional money and platforms like Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:COIN) and Robinhood Markets Inc (NASDAQ:HOOD).

If the CFTC draws a harder line, DraftKings Inc (NASDAQ:DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment plc (NYSE:FLTR) may benefit as the regulated alternative.

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